Kevin Cox' Selections And Analysis (2024)

Just a chalky three bagger for us here on Sunday, and we're still guaranteed a flat bet profit until at least today's 7th race.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): ( Odds not posted as of 4:44 P.M. Friday )

Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( by clicking the image to the left ) and consider helping out, as every little bit counts! I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

#6 CHEVAL DE GUERRE was a dead game runner- up when beginning his working life down in Lexington a month ago, and the top flight pedigree for today's trip tells us that the result was not an aberration. There's been an extremely crisp morning move since and Ortiz hops on. Both the #2 AFTER TAXES (IRE) who totes along a bullet gate move for today's lidlifter ) and #2B HONORARARY AMERICAN (IRE) ( who apparently was in company with him for the similar move ) comprise decent factions of the Wesley Ward entry. #5 DANCING BEAR has a maturity edge over all signed on -- being a January foal -- and can land a share. OFF TURF: 1-2-5-1A-2B

#2 GAV'S DREAM GIRL hasn't been an action since late January, but that effort ended up with a win when going over the dirt for the first time, and brown mare has closed out the Exacta in both starts off a sabbatical. There's some improvement in the training department today, and jockey does better for this outfit than with all other mounts. #3 TRY IT AGAIN faded a little bit when returning off a bit of a freshening, but best work has come beneath the seagulls, and we'll give her a chance to make amends for today's second off the bench deal. #6 FIRST CLASS CAT ( who should we know worse than third for all y'all who like to grind out a show profit ) has been a completely different animal over her last troika, but it would behoove you to take a look at this one during the warmups, as there was a voided claim last time out which is now followed by a drop in class today.

#6 CONTROL TEMPER got up in time to best slightly weaker on the 11th of April, completing a nice 3:2-1-0 run over her last triad. That win came from an outside placement just like today, and although there was a claim that was voided that afternoon, we're somewhat assuaged by a solid Drf Formulator statistic. Over the last 60 months Sharp is exactly that when it comes to his allowance dirt runners who were victorious 38 to 50 days in the past, at 7-1 or less. He's 6 or 13 in that regards, with an ROI of $3.30. #2 DIVINE CROSS has been on the shelf for more than 2 months since the March 15th purchase, but went all the way the last time she returned off of a break in the action, and her finest efforts have come right here. #3 ST. BENEDICT'S PREP tried to run without the jockey last time out, but that's not entirely legal, so we'll give her a chance to get back to the penultimate effort in Keeneland, which was a win versus conditional platers.

#6 INVESTMENT PROCESS didn't show a whole heck of a lot after being steadied in the Hallandale debut, but the adjusted number came back okay for this allotment, and blinkers are now a part of the makeup. Mild selection. #3 MS SEDONA showed precipitous improvement in the followup, out running her odds quite nicely when closing out the exacta at 13-1 @ KEE. Regression is always possible in a second of the layoff attempt, but recognize the fact that Irad chose this one over the above Chad Brown runner. #8 MIZOULA (IRE) was a snappy runner up the only time she went over firm ground, and could pose a threat if able to get an uncontested lead in this marathon event. OFF TURF: 2-4-6-5-9(MTO)

#2 PROPER GRAMMAR hasn't gotten her photo taken in 25 consecutive races, but didn't have the easiest of trips last time out, and lands in a very soft spot. Price play in the heat that's difficult to decipher. #4 PRACTICAL MISS went coast to coast like butter and toast in the comebacker for good guy Duggan, and has a fondness for this oval. Lone second off the bench engagement was a disappointing one, so we'll leave this miss beneath. #5 LADY FORTUNA finds herself at her lowest level to date and has a hood affixed for the first time.

#3 AUNT YOLA nearly went all the way in a similar spot 34 days in the past, and that topped off three races in which she had improved from a speed figure standpoint. Looks like the race goes through her, and she should be no worse than second for all you place punters out there. #5 GEOPOLITICS was another lively exacta closer in the bow, and although she hasn't been seen since February, the sharp work tab signals readiness for today's return. Looms the mainger danger to the above. #1 DANCE ON AIR as good as any for the show dough.

#7 SELL SOMETHING hasn't been seen since getting moved up to first just before turkey time, but gelding picked up the lion's share in his only start off a respite, and has a two for six record over this oval. #1 LET'S GO BIG BLUE is another one who's been MIA since the fall, but has also done admirably off of a break in the action, while owning a win and a showing from three starts when beginning from the innermost two slots. #8 BE OF COURAGE got up in time versus allowance foes when coming back from a four and a half month break, giving him his second win on this course. The only time he was in his second off the layoff placement, a 17-1 third place finish was the end result, and we like to see that there was no starch taken out of the collar off his last win, with a 36 flat breeze on the docket. OFF TURF: 9-2-6-4-12(MTO)

These three and no more for our rolling action. #2 DUCKPHAT is a notorious nibbler, but takes what we would consider to be a slight drop in class off the recent showing, and today could be the day to get off the schneid. #1 FOXY CARA posted a career best wet track figure last time out, so if you felt inclined to prorate that to her best number over a glib service, then what you have is a figaro which would put her smack dab in the middle of the mix. #4 ECHO IN ETERNITY has hit the board in her last three outings, and this lightly raced 5 year old fingers prominent once again.

#8 SOLOSHOT nearly blew up the tote board when trying the verde for the first time, as this chestnut gal fell short by only a length at 49 to 1. Obviously, we don't like "Missing the wedding and going to the funeral", but she does in fact have a nice overall resume', and from a limited sampling, this outfit is 2 of 4 with sod sprinters who hit the board less than 53 days ago, @ 60 to 1 or less. The winners came back a hefty $45 & $30, and believe it or not, she may get overlooked at the windows a bit once again. #7 SOLIB comes in today seeking her third straight win, and as she has proven to be better on the turf than the dirt, we'd say it's definitely feasible. Popular item at the claim box has partaken in the superfecta in both second off the layoff deals, and we like this one's ability to send or come from off the pace. #2 MZ BIG BUCKS has been beset by back to back L/O lines, but put forth an honest enough effort when debuting on this oval a bit more than a year ago. OFF TURF: 1-7-6-16(MTO)-8

Aqueduct Spring/Summer: 31-110 ( $233.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 0-1 ( 0% ) Favorite's Win %: 42-110 ( 38.2% )( As of Friday morning )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ) 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win %139-377 ( 36.9% )

Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4129-20204 ($34,313.40) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.1% takeout

Beatable Favorites : 459-1706( 27% )Favorite's Win %: 7608-20307( 37.8% )

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4160-20772 ( $35,132.60 )Beatable Favorites : 469-1752( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7751-20894( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.7% takeout

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): ( Odds not posted as of 10:23 P.M. Wednesday )

Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( by clicking the image to the left ) and consider helping out, as every little bit counts! I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

#2 MY FIRST LOVE hasn't done much to get the pulse racing in her two starts since being claimed for a quarter, but was ambitiously spotted in both of those heats, and gets an upgrade in the irons for today's drop to her lowest level yet. Horse for the course could perk up. #7 TRADE SECRET has earned six checks from her last seven outings, and drops a peg after a showing and a voided claim. Gal has done okay when last to load, but it would behoove you to take a gander during the warmups. #1 DIVA BANKER may grind out a share.

#1 ALPHA SONNY all the way. #6 STANLEY ROUGH finished directly behind the above when debuting in that April 28th affair, but had a bit of trouble at the onset, before running a quite greenly. Eligible to improve with Ortiz taking the reins. #4 IRIE MAN as good as any for the show dough.

#6 BOB JOHN RAY showed precipitous improvement when getting a cleaner trip & eye cups for the first time three fortnights back, and while a regression is always possible after a big step forward with an equipment change, the pedigree tells us the result was likely not a fluke. Mild selection in a race with no first draft eliminations. #7 JACKSON HEIGHTS is a bit of a nibbler by nature, as this gelding has closed out the exacta in his last four starts over a glib surface. One of those came in a third off the layoff attempt, and we can't fall to anyone taking a favorable view here. #2 BAD LARRY digs the local seagulls, and they will likely have to grab him by the tail to get the glory.

#6 NAUGHTY DESTINY hasn't been seen since the fall, but barn knows how to have them ready for comebackers, and the adjusted figaro from her debut in October puts her in the upper echelon here. Gray gal also gets the wonder drug for the first time, and is a mild choice in a very difficult race to decipher. #2 CAPITAL SPENDING had to jam on the brakes a couple of times when getting her working papers on the 25th of April, but lost by just a length and a half that afternoon, and Flavor Flav, who's been lighting it up here, is called on. #6 HEAVENLY GIRL returned off a lengthy sabbatical to finish in the back half of the pack when taking a decent amount of money last time out, but could move forward in today's second off the shelf engagement. OFF TURF: 8-9-3-4-14(AE)

#2 FIRSTTIMEINFOREVER has really turned the corner over her last sextet, having partaken in the triple and each and every start. Gal was uncharacteristically tardy to the party in the most recent, but still ended up finishing second beneath today's helmsman. We're seeing this miss as a single for all those ready to mingle. #1 MIM bested half the field at nearly 100-1 after opening up a daylight lead in her first turf route on firm ground. Should be able to do a little bit better with a slightly easier pace. #8 LAKESIDE GETAWAY has been MIA since Turkey Time, but is an obvious factor if able to get back to those last three stars from 2023. OFF TURF: 2-6-16(AE)-5-15(AE)

#3 HOURS IN A DAY popped and stopped in the lidlifter down in Hallandale Beach last month, but $150,000 auction purchase can be all yours for just a double sawbuck today. Irad hops on, and the 408 Tomlinson tells us to give this one another chance. #10 APURO has been perfectly kept in jail since the claim on 4/21, and although this notorious money burner did it again that day, we think he has a chance to write the ship versus these. #7 SHAKIN THE BELLE outran his odds quite nicely when placing in the a near identical spot 34 days in the rear, and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman here.

#1 WHITE PALOMINO had a troubled trip in the bow, but ended up having a perfect journey in the followup down in Lexington, when procuring the sheepskin out a 7/2 offering. A graded stakes event is never an easy spot to face winners in for the first time, but we think there may be a little bit of value here given the powerful connections. #3 RISK TOLERANCE grinded it out the maiden win in solid fashion right here 5 weeks ago, and the top flight pedigree says the sky could be the limit with this one. #2 LEGEND OF TIME (GB) was extremely disappointing in his American debut, but found the line first the only time he was in the second off the layoff jammie, and discount this outfit at your own peril. OFF TURF: 1-4-2-7-3

#3 STELLA MARS put forth a solid effort when getting a big time trainer upgrade out of the Chatterpaul barn last time out, and this 6 year old got up in time in her only second off the bench attempt when going long on the lawn. Blinkers are once again part of the makeup, which just may have this one a bit closer to the pace. #2 SMOKIE EYES has done her best work in Ozone Park, and after stumblin' and a bumblin' in her comebacker, rates a shot to make amends. #5 DETERMINED LILLY has been in absentia since early November, but got her Polaroid taken at 12-1 in her only layoff attempt on the gramma. OFF TURF: 1-2-6-9-5

#2 DISAPPEARANCE may not appear to have shown much when finishing last at 62-1 three weeks back, but bay boy did in fact outrun his turf bloodlines by a good margin that day. That being said, if you want to prorate said to his best number on the sand, what you come up with is something that puts him in the top tier versus these. Note the bullet work for runner who does his best coming from off the pace. #8 CHEEKY TICO has been in the money in five of his last six, seven of his last nine, and all his wins have come at the Big A. #5 CANDY TYCOON ( who ran against Tiz the Law way back when ) has never seen these depths and can land a slice.

#4 POWER ATTACK shoots for the three bagger today, and we see it as being well within reach, as this fella has shown some diversity with his three wins being under three different sets of circ*mstances. The race goes through him. #5 BIG BRANKSTER immolated a bit of baccala when encountering some trouble in the comebacker, but Rosario hops on now, and he guided this one to two game runnerup finishes last fall. #2 ALLIED ATTACK has eye cups slapped on for the first time this afternoon, but may have outran his turf pedigree last out, so we will keep beneath. OFF TURF: 3-1-2-1A-8

#5 JHIRSCH comes in today off a showing behind a next out Victor down in Oldsmar, and despite not having disgraced himself the only time he went over firm ground, this pricey homebred now has the white flag run up in being up for grabs. Logical, but by no means a cinch. #11 FROZEN FOUR has been off for several months, but gets an "Around the World" treatment for today's return -- taking the biggest drop in the game, while losing his procreating abilities, and being in receipt of the miracle drug for the first time. #3 YOUR MISSION has always been a bit of a fragile sort, but has done decently off a layoff, and Castellano sees fit to ride. OFF TURF: 7-2-1-9-4

Aqueduct Spring/Summer: 31-110 ( $233.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 0-1 ( 0% ) Favorite's Win %: 42-110 ( 38.2% )( As of Friday morning )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ) 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win %139-377 ( 36.9% )

Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4129-20204 ($34,313.40) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.1% takeout

Beatable Favorites : 459-1706( 27% )Favorite's Win %: 7608-20307( 37.8% )

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4160-20772 ( $35,132.60 )Beatable Favorites : 469-1752( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7751-20894( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.7% takeout