Picks & Plays for Monday, September 4
- by David Aragona
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PICKS
Race 1: 7 - 5 - 2 - 9
Race 2: 8 - 6 - 3 - 7
Race 3: 5 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 4: 3 - 2 - 1 - 6
Race 5: 3 - 6 - 4 - 10
Race 6: 1 - 6 - 9 - 3
Race 7: 2 - 10 - 6 - 5
Race 8: 10 - 8 - 9 - 4
Race 9: 3 - 8 - 4 - 5
Race 10: 10 - 6 - 9 - 5
Race 11: 8 - 12 - 11 - 7
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 1
As connections try to get a final start in before the end of this Saratoga meet, it’s interesting to note that 3 of the runners in the main body of this field are actually fillies facing males. Among those are two who could take plenty of money. Marco T. (#5) ran well on debut in May, chasing home a couple of fillies with ability, including Sam’s Treasure, who won her next start on dirt. It helps that she’s moving into New York-bred company this time, but she’s been off for a while and figures to take plenty of money with that exposed turf form. Another filly, Red Burgundy (#2) also has some prior experience, though she’ll be getting on the grass for the first time. She showed good speed on debut before fading. Yet she is supposed to appreciate this surface switch, by Noble Mission and a half-sister to multiple turf winner Collaboration. Linda Rice sends out Wine Responsibly (#9), who might be most interesting of the first time starters. This one has been working pretty well, and the dam did win her debut sprinting on grass before turning out to be more of a dirt horse. My top pick at a big price is first time turfer Dixie Pharaoh (#7). I like the progeny of American Pharoah on the turf, and he’s a 12% turf sprint sire. There isn’t an abundance of grass pedigree on the dam’s side, but this one strikes me as one that might handle the surface. He has some good extension and float to his stride, and he seemed to move much better over that sealed track on debut than he did a harrowed track last time. That can sometimes be indicative of a horse with turf inclination, and he figures to be a price for sharp connections.
Fair Value:
#7 DIXIE PHARAOH, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 2
If she repeats her last race, Just Katherine (#3) will be too strong for this group to handle. She went off as a price in that 4-horse Wilton, but was the only one within hailing distance of winner Randomized at the end. She was also the only horse to make up any ground in a race dominated on the front end through moderate fractions. The concern is that she was clearly geared up to run her best race that day, and now she’s coming back nearly two months later with just one workout showing. The connections have opted to forgo some tougher stakes assignments for this allowance race going 9 furlongs. The distance is also a real question mark for her, as a daughter of Justify. I want to go in a different direction and look to some fillies exiting the Aug. 9 race at this level. Coppa Girl (#6) narrowly lost a photo finish that day after being hard ridden to secure a brief lead in mid-stretch. She had been somewhat unlucky in the first two starts of her career, but put it all together to break her maiden two back before that solid allowance try. She makes sense, but I’m more interested in a horse who finished behind her last time. Raging Sea (#8) was overbet on that occasion, going off at even-money based primarily on her 2-year-old form. She didn’t show much progression in that first start off the layoff, but she also didn’t get the easiest trip. Without much pace signed on, she was forced to set the pace, which surely wasn’t the connections’ preference. This time she’s drawn outside all of her main rivals and can sit a better stalking trip. She gets Lasix for the first time, and she’s always been cut out to go these longer distances, so I like the stretch-out for her more than anyone else.
Fair Value:
#8 RAGING SEA, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 5
The filly Voleuse (#4) takes on the boys here in this New York-bred maiden race, and she appears to fit pretty well. She had run deceptively well in the first two turf starts of her career before her connections focused on dirt for a series of races. She finally got back on grass off the layoff last time and showed her affinity for the surface. Yet she wasn’t facing the strongest field that day and seemingly had the run won in upper stretch before hanging in the late stages. She’s a little tough for me to endorse in this spot off that performance, though she does have a right to move forward second off the layoff. Among her main rivals is Scherzando (#6), who may get somewhat dismissed here due to his 0 for 18 lifetime record. However. He’s only made 5 of those starts on turf, and is clearly best on this surface. I think he has a chance to cause the upset, though he really needs the trip to workout, as he does have a tendency to hang. I’m also mildly intrigued by the unfortunately named first time starter Sondsliksomdiniddo (#10). This gelding is a full-brother to the ill-fated Butter Lou, who did win his only start sprinting on turf. He appears to be training decently and will be a price in here. My top pick is Okaloosa (#3) as he gets on turf for the first time. I thought this horse was training pretty well for his debut two weeks ago, but he was obviously more turf meant despite staying in that off the turf race. He actually ran a nice race, stalking the pace before making a menacing move up the rail, only to flatten out late. His dam was strictly a turf horse who won 3 times on this surface. Horacio De Paz has good numbers with second time starters, and I think this horse is going to take a step forward getting on grass.
Fair Value:
#3 OKALOOSA, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 7
There are many ways to go in this competitive state-bred allowance affair. The one they all have to beat is Overacting (#7), who did win her debut in an unconventional fashion, running off on the front end before coming back to the field, only to kick on late. It’s hard for me to gauge the quality of that race, since most of the runbacks came in an off the turf race last week. She got very keyed up prior to the start that day, as the field was sent right to the gate with no warm-up as they tried to run the race around a rainstorm. She used that nervous energy to her advantage that day, but I wonder if she’ll be as effective using that same style here. She’s also drawn outside of her main pace rival Spooky Lady, who seems more likely to secure that coveted rail position. The main rival for the Chad Brown runner is Waterville (#10), who put in a strong effort to close for second at this level two back. She got a great tri that day, but still did well to close in a race dominated towards the front end. Her last start was a little disappointing, but she was always too far back and actually ran on well towards the end. I expect her to do better here with Flavien Prat taking over again. There are some others who participated in that July 15 event, including Sals Dream Girl (#5), who could never really mount a rally after trying to make up ground outside. My top pick is the last-place finisher in that July 15 affair. Sweetest Princess (#2). The trip didn’t work out for her, as she was forced to race wide every step of the way after breaking from an outside post position. She had run much better than that in all of her prior turf starts, yet had been similarly unlucky on both April 8 and May 29, sustaining wide trips on each of those occasions as well. She actually bounced back a bit on dirt last time, and now returns to her preferred surface after being claimed by a new barn. She’s finally drawn an advantageous inside post position and figures to fly under the radar.
Fair Value:
#2 SWEETEST PRINCESS, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 8
Win for Gold (#8) has to be considered the horse to beat as he moves into this New York-bred allowance race after finally winning his starter allowance condition in his 6th consecutive attempt last time. He’s been in strong form for a while now, but just kept finding a superior rival in those races. He put it all together against the right field on Aug. 17, earning a career-best 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure. A repeat of that performance will make him tough to beat, but I do wonder if he might have a regression coming as he runs back in just 18 days. Be the Boss (#6) might also attract some support off a solid effort at this level last time. However, I’m a little concerned about the turnback to 6 furlongs for him. He’s never run quite this short on the dirt, and he prefers to be forwardly placed in a race that features plenty of other speed, including Win for Gold. Callaloo (#9) would be a strong option to com running late if not for the layoff. It’s just a little hard to trust him to come back into top form in his first race in over 5 months, but he’s certainly capable on his best day. My top pick is Always Charming (#10). This isn’t the type of horse I usually go for, since there’s a chance he could take some of that Irad Ortiz money. I think he’s just a very logical, likely winner of this race. He’s shown a propensity to break a step slowly in his last couple of starts, and I think that negative trait could be mitigated by the outside draw on this occasion. He ran very well behind a razor sharp Ocean’s Reserve two back, and then last time didn’t get an ideal trip when caught in behind horses for much of the stretch drive. He looks like the one to beat to me, and he might not go favored.
Fair Value:
#10 ALWAYS CHARMING, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 10
This Hopeful is one of the strongest editions of this race that I can ever remember. Not only does there appear to be some serious talent in this field, but it’s a fascinating race to handicap, with many viable options. Muth is no longer one of those, as he was scratched this morning, leaving just one Bob Baffert trainee in this field. Mission Beach (#4) seems like he might have more developing to do, but he didn’t run that fast on debut, and I think others are more interesting. Timberlake (#5) will surely attract plenty of support as he makes his stakes debut for Brad Cox. This colt didn’t get the right trip on debut when hung out wide in a rail-dominated race, but he put it all together with the blinkers added last time. He spurted away early and never looked back, drawing off to a powerful score. His 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure is tied with Muth for the highest number in the field. Furthermore, he’s been working exceptionally well since that race, turning in one of the most impressive drills I’ve seen all summer on Aug. 20. That said, he figures to get bet off those workouts, and I think others may offer better value. Steve Asmussen has a strong pair of contenders. Valentine Candy (#9) won his debut in gritty fashion, as he rocketed out of the gate, set a contested pace, and turned away multiple challengers. That initially looked like a slow race, but the TimeformUS Speed Figure has since been revised to reflect how strong the runbacks have been. He showed stamina to survive that pace scenario on debut, so I’m not too concerned about the stretch-out. Gold Sweep (#6) also merits strong consideration. He was all the rage after winning the Tremont so impressively, but he metaphorically stubbed his toe when disappointing as a heavy favorite in the Sanford. He did have a legitimate excuse, stumbling at the start, which put him out of position throughout. I think we’re going to see a much better effort his time, and all the speed signed on here should suit him. My top pick is Be You (#10). He'sthe only maiden in this field, but still ran well enough on debut to win most of the maiden races at this met. The 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure he was assigned for that narrow loss to today’s rival Just Steel was arguably flattered earlier this week when Locked returned to win so impressively. Whereas Be You was drawn the rail in that first start, Just Steel had the 10 post position and took advantage of it. This time the post positions are reversed, and I think that’s going to help Be You settle into the race. He has worked well since that race, going slightly better than Sapling winner Noted in that Aug. 19 drill. He’s supposed to love the extra furlong of this race, and doesn’t need to progress much to beat this field.
Fair Value:
#10 BE YOU, at 3-1 or greater
#9 VALENTINE CANDY, at 9-1 or greater
RACE 11
There isn’t that much turf form on which to base opinions in this state-bred maiden finale. Lt. Mitchell (#11) has clearly run the best turf races of anyone, having hit the board in his last couple of outings on grass. He encountered some minor traffic trouble in the stretch of that June 1 event at this level before running on for third. He participated in a couple off the turf races earlier in the meet, but got back on grass last time and put in another respectable showing. He got a good trip stalking a moderate pace but just couldn’t see it out. He makes sense here against what might be a softer field, but I didn’t want to settle for a short price on him. Chad Brown sends out one of the wild cards in here in first time starter Fake Celebrity (#5). There is some turf pedigree here, but it’s not as if he’s overwhelmingly bred for this surface. Practical Joke is just a 6% turf route sire, according to DRF Formulator’s sire stats. The dam did win on the turf and place in a stakes on grass, but her best foal Brooklyn Strong was a dirt router. He’s likely to take money by default and I want to look elsewhere. Among the first time turfers, Scaramanga (#12) might be most interesting. He’s by good all around sire Munnings, and the dam was a 6-time winner on turf who was strictly a grass horse, not running nearly as well on dirt. He’s faded in all of his dirt races, but he might have needed this switch to turf all along. My top pick is Chulligan (#8). He’s another who is fairly inexperienced on grass, with just one prior start over the surface. That came off a layoff last time at Belmont, and the trip just didn’t work out for him. He broke fine, but then got steadied back a few strides away from the gate, relegating him to the back of the pack early. He tried to advance around the turn, but got forced to move prematurely by a rival to his outside and then got squeezed back between horses while in the midst of his run. He probably needed that start off a long layoff, and now he’s coming back for the second race of his 3-year-old season against what appears to be a softer field. He’s certainly bred to move forward on turf.
Fair Value:
#8 CHULLIGAN, at 3-1 or greater
Picks & Plays for Sunday, September 3
by David Aragona
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PICKS
Race 1: 6 - 5 - 8 - 7
Race 2: 5 - 9 - 7 - 4
Race 3: 4 - 5 - 1A - 7
Race 4: 7 - 6 - 1 - 2
Race 5: 6 - 2 - 10 - 8
Race 6: 5 - 4 - 2 - 9
Race 7: 3 - 4 - 9 - 1A
Race 8: 7 - 8 - 10 - 11
Race 9: 8 - 6 - 9 - 7
Race 10: 1 - 7 - 13 - 3
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 1
There’s no lack of turf form in this intriguing maiden event that opens the card. A few of these fillies ran quite well in their grass debuts earlier in the meet. That group is led by Weigh the Risks (#8), who was all the rage getting bet down to even-money on debut. She ran pretty well, but couldn’t quite stay with Ozara in the late stages as that one got a perfect trip. No speed figure was assigned to that race, but it’s a good sign that those two drew clear of the rest. She makes sense here, but it’s unclear if she has much of an edge over horses like Later Darling (#5) and Appellate (#7) from the Todd Pletcher stable. The former finished behind Weigh the Risks last time, but did well to get up for fourth after blowing the start. She could be dangerous here if she gets away cleanly. Appellate got a perfect trip on debut, but still nearly won against a well-meant Chad Brown filly. These will be tough to beat. I’m taking a shot against those runners with turf experience with one of the first time turfers. Philanthropy (#6) is bred to love this surface. The Phipps homebred was off slowly and never seriously involved in the debut. She’s out of a dam who has produced 5 winners, all of which are turf winners. Among those are Grade 1 Belmont Derby winner Mr Speaker, turf stakes winners Fire Away and Vigilantes Way, and Grade 1-winning jumper Snap Decision. Shug McGaughey is 5 for 26 (19%, $2.59 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second time starters going from dirt to turf over the past 5 years. There are plenty of signs pointing to her doing a lot better with this surface switch, and she figures to be a fair price with so many other appealing options signed on.
Fair Value:
#6 PHILANTHROPY, at 7-1 or greater
RACE 2
The dropdowns will obviously be tough in this New York-bred maiden claimer. The horse to beat is clearly Mim (#9), who hasn’t been quite good enough to win at the maiden special weight level, but has nevertheless run pretty well in all of her starts since returning from a layoff for Mark Casse this year. She’s earned a series of speed figures that just make her a deserving favorite against this field. The drop in class seems a little aggressive given her credentials, but she can’t be dismissed. Bon Adieu (#4) has a similar profile as she drops for Danny Gargan. She’s finished behind Mim two back and hit the wire with that one on July 15. The drop makes sense for her as well, and she might be a better price with Katie Davis riding. Sweet Liberty (#7) could also be too big a price in here due to the presence of Katie’s sister, Jackie. Yet she has ridden this filly in most of her starts, and she’s run well enough to be competitive here on a number of occasions. Her recent efforts do leave something to be desired, but the drop might wake her up. My top pick is a horse who has already competed at this level. Scherzer (#5) debuted for this tag at Belmont, and got a pretty eventful trip. She was off a step slowly and then got rank rushing forward down the backstretch. She was moving nicely into contention on the turn, but then got steadied in traffic and lost valuable momentum at a critical stage of the race. She’s had some time off since then and now returns for her second start while getting a rider upgrade to Manny Franco. Ray Handal has good stats with maiden second time starters in dirt sprints.
Fair Value:
#5 SCHERZER, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 6
There are some first time starters with potential in this two-year-old maiden race, but experienced runners might have the edge going this 7-furlong distance. Genetics (#2) has already gone this far, having debuted at the distance in mid-August. She ran quite well that day, making a nice move to take over at the top of the stretch before leaning in and tiring through the lane. She figures to benefit from that experience, and has a right to improve here. Alpine Princess (#4) is another who figures to take a step forward in her second career start. She didn’t get away that well on debut, breaking slowly and getting bumped at the start. She made some good progress after that and launched a strong rally while wide on the turn before flattening out in the late stages. Brad Cox is dangerous with second time starters and she merits respect. My top pick is a second time starter who is switching surfaces. Nikitis (#5) was highly touted for her debut on grass, even though she doesn’t possess that much turf pedigree. She had worked very well for that career debut, including one drill in which she held her own in company with Ways and Means, the Spinaway favorite. That ability obviously didn’t translate to the afternoon, but she just never seemed to be getting over the turf as well as she had the dirt in the morning. I like her switching surfaces, and I expect we’re going to see a much better effort this time.
Fair Value:
#5 NIKITIS, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 7
The Three Diamonds entry figures to garner support, and Jarreau (#1A) is clearly the stronger half of that pair. He has run plenty of competitive speed figures, and seemed to get back on track when dropped to this level last time. The issue with him is that he just doesn’t win, having not crossed the wire first since May 2021, some 20 starts ago. He makes sense and I’d use him in exotics, but he’s going to be a short price with Irad Ortiz aboard, and I think others will offer better value. Ski Patrol (#2) is a difficult runner to gauge. Linda Rice has twice entered him in turf sprints at this meet, both of which were rained off the turf, only to now stretch him out to 9 furlongs. I actually thought he was pretty interesting turning back, since he strikes me as one that wants to go shorter. He drew well here, but I prefer others. Harry Hood (#9) finished behind that rival when they met on July 28, but I thought he ran better that day, and would appreciate the stretch-out more. Mark Hennig does have good stats off the claim. I’m afraid of Empire Attraction (#4) coming up from Florida. These connections can be very dangerous, and he’s run fairly well in his recent starts for Saffie Joseph. The winner of this turf race two back would be a player here, and last time he exits a race from which 3 horses returned to win their next starts. His tactical speed could also be beneficial here as he switches into the barn of Danny Gargan with Kendrick Carmouche aboard. I had a tough time deciding between Empire Attraction and my eventual top pick, Born a Gambler (#3). I can’t say that I was this horse’s biggest fan earlier in his career, but he’s continued to progress despite a series of trainer changes. Mike Maker is definitely the best turf trainer that has conditioned him, and he seems to be improving under his care. I liked his win two back, even with a perfect trip. Then last time he never had a fair chance, chasing from mid-pack in a race dominated on the front end. I don’t mind him trying 9 furlongs again, and he’s drawn well with some tactical speed.
Fair Value:
#3 BORN A GAMBLER, at 5-1 or greater
#4 EMPIRE ATTRACTION, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 8
Dontmesswithtess (#10) may go favored here as she attempts to get back to the winner’s circle for the first time since she was claimed out of a winning effort by Mike Maker in January. Her form has been heading in the right direction recently, and she ran one of her best races last time in defeat. Racing over a rain-softened course, Irad Ortiz Jr. made a premature move to lead at the top of the stretch before proving vulnerable to a rival who was ridden more patiently. She makes sense, but she won’t be much of a price and I’m not convinced she necessarily gets better with more distance. Among her main rivals is Diamond Status (#8), who steps up in class off a maiden victory, though that performance stacks up very well against this field. The race got a TimeformUS Race Rating of 98, matching that of today’s race, suggesting this really isn’t much of a class hike in terms of field quality. She also was much the best on that occasion, surviving a fast pace to kick on again in deep stretch and hold off two late-runners. It did take this filly 14 attempts to win her maiden, but she was overmatched in a number of those races and has generally run well when she’s gotten the chance to route on turf. My top pick is Miss Kristy (#7). There appears to be some speed signed on here, and we have seen plenty of races on the turf courses this week going to closers even when it doesn’t appear there’s a ton of speed on paper. Miss Kristy is a late-runner who has to improve a bit on her prior speed figures to contend against a field of this quality. Yet I really liked the way she was progressing through the first half of this year. She gamely ran on for second at Tampa in February, and that was the day the light bulb seemed to turn on. She won her next two starts, including her first attempt against winners in May, with a strong late kick. She was closing into a quick pace on that occasion, but she figures to get another good setup here. She’s going to be a price for lower-profile connections and I think she still has upside.
Fair Value:
#7 MISS KRISTY, at 6-1 or greater
Picks & Plays for Saturday, September 2
by David Aragona
PICKS
Race 1: 7 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 2: 6 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 3: 4 - 2 - 3
Race 4: 7 - 4 - 2 - 1A
Race 5: 1 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 6: 5 - 1 - 7 - 3
Race 7: 9 - 3 - 10 - 1
Race 8: 3 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 9: 8 - 11 - 10 - 6
Race 10: 1 - 8 - 4 - 6
Race 11: 3 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 12: 5 - 2 - 4 - 11
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2:
#6 GUNTOWN, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 4:
#7 LUDWIG, at 6-1 or greater
#4 CHILENO, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 7:
#9 DIVE BOMBER, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 8:
#3 THIN WHITE DUKE, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 10:
#1 DANZIGWITHTHESTARS, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 11:
#3 WARRIOR JOHNY, at 9-1 or greater
Picks & Plays for Friday, September 1
by David Aragona
VisitTimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
PICKS
Race 1: 9 - 2 - 6 - 3
Race 2: 5 - 8 - 1 - 4
Race 3: 6 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 4: 4 - 2 - 6 - 1
Race 5: 6 - 5 - 9 - 2
Race 6: 5 - 8 - 3 - 1
Race 7: 8 - 1 - 2 - 7
Race 8: 8 - 2 - 1 - 10
Race 9: 10 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 10: 5 - 12 - 10 - 9
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 3
This statebred optional claimer centers around Khali Magic (#3), who would be awfully tough to beat if she repeats her last race. That day she defeated an open-company field which included the talented Cupid’s Heart, though that filly was coming off a layoff. Khali Magic took advantage of a paceless race where she was able to dominate on the front end, but that seems unlikely to happen here with a couple of speeds drawn to her outside. She’s typically best when she can be forwardly placed, and she’s shown farther back on the TimeformUS Pace Projector. The two fillies shown leading on the Pace Projector, Silver Fist (#4) and Fancy Joke (#5), hooked up last time out on July 7. Silver Fist was aggressively ridden to secure the lead that day, but had to run very fast to do so. Her 144 pace figure for the opening quarter was unreasonably fast and she paid the price late. Even Fancy Joke ended up fading off the board in a race that went to closers. This time I doubt they hook up to quite the same extent, and Silver Fist does have past races that give her a chance at a price. My top pick is the filly who I think is likely to pull the best trip. Ribot’s Valentine (#6) is perfectly positioned on the Pace Projector, stalking outside those two speeds. This filly ran a few races as a 3-year-old that make her competitive with this field. She obviously tailed off a bit over the winter, and needed that race going a mile when she returned from a layoff in June. Yet she got back on track last time, running deceptively well to be third against a tough rival at this level. She tried to take on the winner Imhavingamoment, who has been in excellent form lately. Yet Ribot’s Valentine was racing on the rail throughout on a day where the inside path was not the place to be. I think she’s better than that performance indicates, and now looks ready to step forward again for Ray Handal.
Fair Value:
#6 RIBOT'S VALENTINE, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 4
Carl Spackler (#2) is probably going to win this Saranac at a very short price. He towers over the field on paper, after decisively defeating a tougher group last time out in the Grade 2 Hall of Fame. However, he’s now returning on just 3 weeks’ rest, and surely is cranked up for his top performance, just using this as a stepping stone to get to a Grade 1 next month. The Pace Projector depicts him on a clear lead with the “No Speed” flag, which is different from the “Favors Frontrunners” scenario. Carl Spackler has never raced from the front end before, and he’s achieved his best results when he’s able to settle and finish. We’ll see if he’s as effective going to the lead, but I just didn’t want to default to him at a short price. He looks pretty formidable, but I think there’s more going on in this race than it might appear at first glance. A few horses are cutting back to a more appropriate distance with back class. And then there’s the new face from Europe. Yacowlef (#4) was entered in an allowance race on Wednesday, but was scratched when it came off the turf. The connections probably intended to run here anyway. Jack Sisterson has good numbers with foreign shippers in a small sample, going 3 for 9 (33%, $2.49 ROI) over the past 5 years. Yacowlef primarily competed over shorter distances in England, but that 7-furlong form may translate well to this slightly longer trip in the United States. I thought he ran especially well last time at Goodwood, launching a strong rally from last, navigating traffic to close into a race won on the front end. His Timeform Ratings aren’t that far off the contenders in here, and he figures to fly under the radar.
Fair Value:
#4 YACOWLEF, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 5
Locked (#5) figures to go off at a very short price as he stretches out to a mile in his second start. His debut was the kind of effort that naturally gets people buzzing about his future prospects. He didn’t break that sharply and got steadied back to last soon after the start. However, he started moving around the half-mile pole and sustained that run all the way through the stretch to get up for third in a race otherwise dominated towards the front end. He wasn’t just picking up pieces that day, he was really flying through the wire, and feels like one that is supposed to improve with added distance. He’s trained well since then, galloping out especially well in that Aug. 17 workout, suggesting that this is the right kind of spot. I’m not against him, but I do think one of his rivals could prove dangerous. Drum Roll Please (#6) ran like a horse who just needed the experience on debut. He didn’t break that well, and then got to climbing on the backstretch before settling to track in mid-pack. He briefly threatened to make a run when diving down inside in the stretch but couldn’t really pick up any momentum while racing through kickback. I don’t think we saw the best this horse has to offer that day, and he’s bred to appreciate added distance. Hard Spun is an underrated sire of dirt routers, and the dam won stakes routing on dirt, turf, and synthetic. He's been training well since that race, and might be able to get the jump on his main rival for a barn that has sent out nothing but live runners at the meet.
Fair Value:
#5 DRUM ROLL PLEASE, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 9
This state-bred optional claimer is one of the most difficult handicapping puzzles on the card. Disarmed (#8) seems likely to attract some support as he steps up in class, having won 3 of his last 4 starts. However, he got lucky to win last time when main rival City Mischief stumbled a few times just before the finish. I think he’s meeting tougher rivals this time and wouldn’t want to take him at any kind of short price. Icy Flavor (#1) is another who could take money that I’m somewhat against. He got an absolutely perfect trip when he won at Del Mar last fall, setting a slow pace before spurting away. He’s making his first start against New York-breds, but he didn’t draw well on the rail for a speed horse and Irad Ortiz isn’t always the most aggressive in these situations. Winners Laugh (#9) is a horse who I thought was very interesting getting on turf last time, since he has pedigree to handle it and had given my turf vibes. He certainly got over the surface well, but couldn’t sustain an honest pace. He fits off that effort, but it’s a little harder to see him working out the right trip this time. One horse who should fall into a decent trip is King Moonracer (#3). He might not be as naturally talented as some others in here, but he’s one of very few closers in a race that does appear to feature some pace. He probably is somewhat dressed up by that victory over a yielding course two back, and I would have liked to see him win that race at Monmouth last time. Vacation Dance (#2) is another who has rallied from off the pace before, and I also like him turning back to a shorter trip. They’ve tried to go progressively longer distances with him this year, and I think he’s much more suited to sprinting. Perhaps those routes will have dulled his speed a bit, but he was running races as a 2-year-old that make him competitive here, and he figure to be a decent price in this spot. My top pick is Saint Selby (#10). The thought process here is that he might simply play out as the quickest of all the speeds. Some will question the switch back to turf, but his lone start on this surface is a lot better than the result suggests. He was used hard to set a fast pace in the early stages, dueling with a horse who was in great form at the time. He faded late, but that was going 7 furlongs, and he’s better suited to shorter distances. The barn has been pretty cold, but he overcame that last time to win a claiming event on the dirt in fast time. Kendrick Carmouche figures to take no prisoners from the outside post position.
Fair Value:
#10 SAINT SELBY, at 9-2 or greater
#2 VACATION DANCE, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 10
I don’t really want to take a short price on either of the two runners drawn on the outside of the main body of the field. Deputy Connect (#9) and Justice Department (#10) are both dropping in class out of tougher spots and will be tough if able to reproduce their better form here. However, Deputy Connect’s last effort was pretty bad. He was ridden that day and just came up completely empty against an off the turf field that he should have been able to handle. I trust Justice Department a little more, since his last dirt race was actually a decent effort. He didn’t run well on turf last time, but I don’t want to be too hard on him for that performance. Chad Brown has great stats dropping into these lower level claiming races, especially at Saratoga. The one problem is that he does have a tendency to break slowly, and that’s a concern from the outside draw. I do think it's important to note that Bold Looker (#12) draws into this race from the AE list. He's not exactly a winning type, but he has run plenty of speed figures that put him in the mix, and now gets needed class relief after running on against tougher two weeks ago. My top pick is Brooklyn Diamonds (#5). Linda Rice is pretty dangerous off the claim with horses like this, and I’m unbothered by the drop in class. She tends to get aggressive with these types, and he's just landing in a spot where he looks like he belongs. This plodder was totally up against the track profile at Ellis Park last time, as he was unable to make up ground in a speed-dominated race. He was actually trying pretty hard late in an effort that’s better than it looks on paper. There isn’t much speed signed on here, but he could be more involved this time for the Rice barn. I also like him going this one(-ish)-turn mile, since I’m not sure he’s a true router.
Fair Value:
#5 BROOKLYN DIAMONDS, at 4-1 or greater
Picks & Plays for Thursday, August 31
by David Aragona
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PICKS
Race 1: 4 - 3 - 9 - 1
Race 2: 3 - 1 - 5 - 7
Race 3: 7 - 6 - 1 - 5
Race 4: 2/2B - 1A - 7 - 6
Race 5: 14 - 12 - 10 - 5
Race 6: 16 - 8 - 9 - 15
Race 7: 8 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 8: 3 - 5 - 7 - 2
Race 9: 10 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 10: 6 - 5 - 10 - 8
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
I don’t have a major knock against Life Talk (#1) here, other than the fact that she’s going to be a very short price as the default favorite in a race where most of her competition looks slower. She ran fine on debut, but it’s not as if she’s exits a particularly fast race herself, and many will just assume that she’s going to improve on that effort. Todd Pletcher is 10 for 50 (20%, $1.14 ROI) with 2-year-old maidens going from sprints to routes on dirt over 5 years, suggesting that these types are often overbet. If I’m trying to beat her, I don’t want to do it with one of the first time starters. Chad Brown and Bill Mott don’t have much success with this move, and their firsters Rising Inflation (#2) and Paradise Lane (#4) could also take money here with seemingly limited options. Yet I would rather look to horses with experience. Ken McPeek has entered a pair of fillies in here, and I think Backstretch Rose (#3) looks like the stronger runner from this barn. She has only made one start on the dirt, and it wasn’t nearly as bad as it looks. She got away to a slow start and was racing towards the back of the pack early in a race, like so many at Ellis, that was dominated on the front end. She actually tried to make a run through the lane and was finishing decently. She has subsequently improved going longer on turf. She faced a weaker field two back and didn’t fare as well last time at Saratoga. Yet she also didn’t get the most comfortable trip that day. I like Manny Franco taking over, and she has a pedigree that suggests she should transition back to dirt.
Fair Value:
#3 BACKSTRETCH ROSE, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 3
Loon Cry (#1) looks like the horse to beat as she switches back to turf after a decent stakes try on the synthetic course at Presque Isle. She will be stepping up to this allowance level for the first time, but she certainly impressed when clearing her N1X condition in July. The 5 1/2-furlong trip will mark the shortest distance she’s ever attempted, but her tactical speed and finishing kick should serve her well on the cutback. I’m not against her, but I do think others could offer better value. Mz Big Bucks (#6) is cutting back in distance far more dramatically, having attempted a two-turn mile in her last start. That proved to be too far for this sprinter, but she still ran pretty well within the context of the race flow. She stalked a fast pace and forged to the lead in upper stretch before fading, passed only by two deep closers. This full sister to a stakes-winning turf sprinter is back at the right distance and should be set for a better effort. My top pick is Road to Remember (#7). Her last-out 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the highest number in this field, and is boosted by a significant pace upgrade for the fast early fractions she set. Seven furlongs is arguably pushing her past her limit, but she still did well to hold on for second behind the closing New Ginya. That rival returned to win the Yaddo Stakes last week in impressive fashion, flattering her form. Road to Remember has previously been successful going this shorter distance on the Saratoga turf course, and she appears to be in better form now than when she won her maiden here last year. She’s switching into the barn of Ray Handal, which doesn’t hurt given the strong year he’s been having. She’s also well positioned on the TimeformUS Pace Projector, depicted just off the lead in a situation predicted to favor forwardly placed runners.
Fair Value:
#7 ROAD TO REMEMBER, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 7
If this With Anticipation stays on the grass, you have to consider the filly Gala Brand (#1), who was scratched out of the rained-off P. G. Johnson on Wednesday. Her debut was visually impressive, as she rocketed from last to first in the span of under two furlongs. Yet it was a race that featured a ridiculously fast early pace which fell apart into her lap. I still think she has ability, and she’s certainly bred to go longer. Yet she’s going to take money off a perfect trip, and I want to consider others. Christophe Clement has entered a pair, both of which have a strong chance. Spirit Prince (#2) is just a maiden, but closed well for second on debut, albeit with a good trip. The winner of that race returned to win the Sapling on dirt with an improved speed figure. It’s a little harder to gauge the quality of the field Carson’s Run (#8) defeated on debut, but I liked the way he closed down the leaders that day. This son of Cupid had worked well for that race, and delivered a professional effort in the afternoon. The fact that no speed figures have been assigned to that race, due to the fact that it was the only turf race run on that course, may inflate his price. Dylan Davis riding this one may also contribute to that, and I think he's one of the more likely winners in this field.
Fair Value:
#8 CARSON'S RUN, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 9
It’s pretty obvious that Ice Road (#5) is the horse to beat in here off his runner-up finish at the level going a mile last time. The form of that race was validated when winner Chileno came back to finish second in a tougher spot with a 106 TimeformUS Figure and 4th-place Mistical Curlin returned to win with a similar figure. He will have to cut back to 7 furlongs here, but he’s handled the distance in the past. His form is fairly exposed so I don’t expect him to offer any particular value, but he’s legitimate. Winning Connection (#3) seems like a candidate to improve off the claim by Rick Dutrow, Jr. His runner-up effort going this distance back in May seemed like an outlier at the time, but he validated it last time winning against weaker. My top pick is Tenebris (#10), who figures to be the right kind of price in this spot. He didn’t get the right trip at Monmouth two back when always out of position and trying to close after spending time on the rail. He fared much better last time at Belmont when returning on very short rest. He got a bit more involved early after a slow start, but had to navigate traffic in the stretch, pausing before making a late push between horses. He appeared to be in strong form at that time, and now he’s returning from a brief freshening. The barn has been on a strong run lately, going 6 for 16 over the past 3 months, and he’s drawn well on the outside.
Fair Value:
#10 TENEBRIS, at 6-1 or greater
Picks & Plays for Wednesday, August 30
by David Aragona
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PICKS
Race 1: CANCELLED
Race 2: 7 - 5 - 1A - 4
Race 3: 8 - 1A - 6 - 4
Race 4: 3 - 6 - 4 - 8
Race 5: 15 - 13 - 12 - 10
Race 6: 2 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 7: 9 - 10 - 16 - 15
Race 8: 9 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 9: 1 - 11 - 5 - 9
Race 10: 16 - 15 - 8 - 14
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 6
I have trouble trusting likely favorite Digital Future (#3), who is getting significant class relief as he drops down to the lowest level of his career for Ray Handal. He has been placed over his head two back, but I was hoping to see better out of him last time when dropped back in for a $25k tag. He never got involved in that race, though the form was flattered when third-place Senor Jobim returned to win. What really bothers me here is his inside draw, since he’s a horse who doesn’t react well to kickback and needs to get steered into the clear. First Deputy (#5) would appreciate any pace that develops up front. His overall form makes him a solid fit here, as he’s been closing mildly at tougher levels in recent starts. Some will downgrade him off the claim, but he’s run well for low-profile outfits in the past. My top pick is Air Show (#2). At first glance, he appears to be badly off form, but I think there are some reason to be optimistic. Since returning from the layoff he ran on a surface he doesn’t handle, and then wasn’t persevered with on July 22 when never involved. He finally was handled more aggressively last time and showed decent speed before fading against slightly tougher. Now he’s returning short rest, and he has a chance to catch his preferred wet track with some rain in the forecast. Jaime Torres figures to send him from the inside in a race that features a murky pace scenario.
Fair Value:
#2 AIR SHOW, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 8
The scratch of Movie Moxy certainly opens this race up. Chad Brown has entered a couple of runners who figure to take money. The overachiever Tough Street (#3) has some competitive speed figures, but I wonder if she’ll be overmatched as she steps up to this level for the first time after beating weaker in an off the turf race.Signal From Noise (#4) is more interesting to me. She probably didn’t want to go 1 1/4 miles last time and also got somewhat stymied in a pocket approaching the stretch that day. She had run very well in her prior start and would be dangerous here if she can get back to that form.Tizzy in the Sky (#8) is another to consider off the layoff, but she’s also been a vet scratch at this meet, and I’m not so confident that we’ll see her maintain top form as she returns for a new trainer. Even Leave No Trace (#5) has a right to get back on track here off one poor performance this winter. She certainly ran well in Saratoga last summer, and now has a chance to build on that form. Yet I want to go in a different direction with a horse that horse more recency. Pretti Xtreme (#9) just won going this distance in impressive fashion earlier in the meet, but did so in a claiming race against much softer foes. Some probably won’t take her seriously on the class hike, but I think she fits well here. She has prior form for different trainers that put her in the mix, and now she’s making her first start off the claim for Rob Falcone, who has excellent stats with this move. Falcone hasn’t had much recent success at Saratoga, collecting plenty of seconds and thirds without winning. Yet that’s just a reason that this mare might get overlooked in a race where she otherwise makes plenty of sense and should get the right setup.
Fair Value:
#9 PRETTI XTREME, at 9-2 or greater
Picks & Plays for Sunday, August 27
by David Aragona
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PICKS
Race 1: 14 - 9 - 13 - 4
Race 2: 3 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 3: 2 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 4: 1 - 6 - 5 - 4
Race 5: 5 - 4 - 8 - 1
Race 6: 2 - 7 - 8 - 4
Race 7: 1 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 8: 9 - 1 - 13 - 4
Race 9: 3 - 8 - 1 - 6
Race 10: 6 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 11: 15 - 11 - 10 - 4
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
This is a small field, but I think there are four legitimate contenders to consider. Timely Conquest (#4) is the horse to beat as she seeks to keep her undefeated record intact. However, she’s attempting to stretch out to 9 furlongs for the first time off a pair of sprints while coming back in just 16 days. I’m not totally convinced that she wants to go this far and she has to take money off that flashy 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Linda Rice sends out the two most logical alternatives. Amanda’s Folly (#1) might be the shorter price picking up Irad Ortiz while coming off a win at the N2X level. She beat a good horse in Sweet Mystery, but did so while everything in Linda Rice’s barn was firing. I just Ichiban (#5) a little more to repeat her victory going this distance. She got a slower speed figure and beat a weaker field, but she was just hitting her best stride at the end of that race and feels like one that has really moved forward for Rice. Yet I’m most interested in the biggest price of the contenders. Cairo Sugar (#3) may get somewhat overlooked for out of town connections, but she’s run plenty of races that put her in the mix. That last race at Parx didn’t come against the toughest competition, but she did beat some seasoned older rivals. She had previously run well on the NYRA circuit, and she’s proven over route distances. She also gets a rider upgrade to Flavien Prat, which can’t hurt.
Fair Value:
#3 CAIRO SUGAR, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 4
There appears to be some talent among this group of 2-year-old in the Funny Cide. The field is led by Bashford Manor winner The Wine Steward (#6), who was pretty impressive winning the first two starts of his career. Some others in this race have run faster speed figures, so it remains to be seen if he’ll maintain his edge into the second half of the season. Trust Fund (#5) got the job done on debut for Todd Pletcher, a rare 2-year-old of his that won his first start wearing blinkers. That race came up reasonably fast, but it’s not characteristic of Todd to run back on short rest and he doesn’t have the best record in Spa 2-year-old stakes. I want to go in a different direction with the more experienced El Grande O (#1). He comes in off the best last-out TimeformUS Speed Figure, earning a 96 for his runner-up finish in the Skidmore last time. Some will view him as more of a turf horse, but his dirt races are better than they look. He just got an educational run when beaten by The Wine Steward on debut, finishing well after a conservative ride. Then last time he had to pause at the quarter pole but still finished well. Linda Rice adds blinkers and wheels him back on short rest, and she has great stats with this move. She is 45 for 152 (30%, $2.45 ROI) returning in 6 to 12 days over the past 5 years.
Fair Value:
#1 EL GRANDE O, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 5
The most intriguing horse in this field is She’s Dancing (#4), who makes just the second turf start of her career after running a huge race on this surface in her grass debut 23 days ago at Penn National. She does have turf pedigree as a daughter of War Dancer, and she really took to the surface in that recent win. It’s not every day that you see horses win by almost 10 lengths on turf and that 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure holds up pretty well for the other horses in the field. She’s stepping way up in class this time, but she does project to be the controlling speed, which gives her an advantage.Whatlovelookslike (#8) figures to take money as she seeks her fourth consecutive victory, but I think she’s gotten very good trips in her recent starts. She was fortunate to win last time when the horse who looked like she was going to beat her suffered an injury on the far turn. She makes sense, but I prefer others now that her form is exposed. My top pick is Runaway Rumour (#5). Some may perceive her as having gone off form, but I think you can make legitimate excuses for some of her recent losses. She did not get the best rides in either the Mount Vernon or Port Washington, as she was sent up to make early moves after the lead, racing without cover around the far turn of each race. She’s best when she can be reserved early and make one run. They tried that last time in the De La Rose, but the pace was totally against her in a merry go round affair. We saw Evvie Jets returned from a pace compromised trip in that same spot to win the Ballston Spa earlier this week. I expect Runaway Rumour to bounce back against a weaker field than we typically see in this kind of race.
Fair Value:
#5 RUNAWAY RUMOUR, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 7
The lone maiden in this field, Stellamaris (#6), might be the horse to beat as she comes into this with the top last-out speed figure. She wasn’t the quickest into stride on debut, but made steady progress off the far turn and was bearing down on the leaders before the winner got away from her late. That came against open company and seemed like a reasonably strong race for the level. Horacio De Paz has decent stats with second time starters, but I am mildly concerned about the slight cutback to 7 furlongs, since she seems like one who may ultimately want to go longer than this. My Shea D Lady (#2) also faced open company foes on debut, winning impressively by 3 lengths at Gulfstream. I really liked the way this filly finished up, but that was just 5F and now she has to stretch out a bit. The 3rd-place finisher came back to win a $35k maiden claimer. She stacks up well against this field from a speed figure standpoint and merits consideration. My top pick needs to get a little faster, but I think that’s likely to happen. It’s not every day that you see a 2-year-old rally from last to first on debut, and that’s exactly what Caldwell Luvs Gold (#1) did as she was taken back after a tardy start, but began to advance powerfully on the turn and sustained that move all the way through the wire. She certainly got some help up front, as the pace was quick, but she still deserves credit for overcoming adversity. Brad Cox is a remarkable 23 for 53 (43%, $2.86 ROI) with last-out debut winners making their second starts in dirt sprints over 5 years. There’s obviously some talent here. She has to be more engaged early this time, as it’s unlikely she'll get the same setup in this smaller field, but I’m expecting a step forward.
Fair Value:
#1 CALDWELL LUVS GOLD, at 2-1 or greater
RACE 8
It must be noted that AE entrant Gem Mint Ten (#13) draws into this race after a few scratches in the main body of the field. He benefited from a favorable race flow last time, but he still has an overall resume that makes him competitive against this field. He just has to overcome an outside draw. Whistler’s Honor (#1) would certainly appreciate some competition for the early lead, since he does his best running in the late stages. He did well to overcome a slow pace when he broke his maiden up here last summer. He was off for nearly a year after that, but ran very well in his return last time at Belmont. He once again found himself in a paceless affair, but was finishing best of all to get up for second behind a gate-to-wire winner. He’s the horse to beat, but I didn’t necessarily want to take a short price on a deep closer. Mr. Kringle (#10) has been in solid form recently without getting ideal trips in most of those recent starts. He was used too aggressively to make a premature move in that May 14 event, and then was chasing wide on June 9 in another race that was coming apart late. He got a better trip last time in the sense that he saved ground, but was against the race flow when rated behind a slow pace that held together. I think he’s capable of achieving a better result, but he needs to get a better trip and overcome his tendency to settle for minor awards. My top pick is One Headlight (#9), who exits that same Aug. 3 affair. I thought Irad Ortiz tried to do the right thing by getting this horse a bit more involved in the early stages than he had been in his prior starts. However, that’s just not the way this horse is most comfortable running, and he was unable to produce his typical strong finish from that position. This time he figures to take back and launch one run. He ran very well from off the pace when he broke his maiden, closing well into a slow pace. I think he’s likely to win here if he can build on that effort.
Fair Value:
#9 ONE HEADLIGHT, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 9
There are many ways to go in this intriguing turf sprint allowance. Weekend Rags (#1) is probably the one to beat after twice hitting the board at this level in her recent starts. She’s been beaten by some pretty good foes in Lisa’s Vision and Loon Cry, and might be getting some slight class relief here. The rail drawn sometimes isn’t ideal going this distance, especially for a horse like this with tactical speed, so I’m reluctant to take too short a price on her. Kerry (#8) interests me a bit as an alternative. She hasn’t run that well in either start so far this year, but she was going too far against tougher in the Wild Applause, and then last time failed to handle dirt. She’s now getting back to what she does best, sprinting on turf, for a barn that excels with these types of runners. At a bigger price, I tried to make a case for first time turfer Danseur d’Oro (#6). She has some turf pedigree on the dam’s side and Bolt d’Oro has been a good turf influence. She has to improve on this surface, but there’s some upside here. My top pick is Saratoga Gaze (#3). She’s moving up in class out of some softer claiming events, but I thought she ran very well when turned back to this distance on opening day of this meet. She was chasing a pretty fast pace, putting away a speed horse that faded badly while she opened up before getting reeled in by a pair of closers. I thought she might have run the best race of anyone in that spot. She probably has to improve slightly to beat this group, but she figures to get somewhat overlooked going out for Mark Hennig and Dylan Davis.
Fair Value:
#3 SARATOGA GAZE, at 7-1 or greater
#8 KERRY, at 7-1 or greater
Race Day Live
